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Steroids could stifle stars' Hall status
The next 15 years could be intriguing in Cooperstown.
By Bob Nightengale, USA TODAYThis could have been a terrific trinity of Hall of Fame classes, but when Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. walk to the Cooperstown podium Sunday, Mark McGwire will be missing.
Instead of being at Cooperstown, McGwire, who hit 583 home runs and shattered Roger Maris' single-season record, will likely be home in California, remembered as the only retired player who has hit at least 500 homers without a Hall of Fame induction.
"For me, I wanted him in this class," Gwynn says. "I wish he could have been here. I can't tell you when this will go away, but I can tell it started with my class."
McGwire was kept out of this year's class because of steroid allegations. They never tested for steroids when he played, but when he went in front of Congress and refused to deny he took illegal performance-enhancing drugs, he was convicted in the public's eye.
And also in the eye of the powerful Hall of Fame voter.
The next 15 years, or perhaps even until the height of the steroid-era class of 1985-2003 retires, could be intriguing in Cooperstown. Sheer numbers no longer provide an automatic entrance into Cooperstown. Five hundred homers, 3,000 hits and 300 victories are magnificent milestones but offer no guarantee.
This season, two players (Frank Thomas and Alex Rodriguez) will have surpassed 500 home runs and three more (Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield) likely will this season or next. Consider that from April 1987 to September 1996, no player surpassed 500.
"The dimensions of the field have changed," former catcher and Arizona Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly says. "The numbers that were golden years ago now are questionable. I'd like to think you still get in with 3,000 hits, but everything else, I'm not sure."
The vast number of Hall of Fame-quality players in today's game may be changing the standards. There are at least 35 active players who warrant Hall of Fame consideration. It's conceivable that in the next six years, we could see a potential inductee class of Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Thomas, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Trevor Hoffman.
"There's more potential Hall of Famers playing right now than we've had at any time," says Sam Reich, a baseball historian who wrote the book Waiting for Cooperstown. "We've never had more than four players inducted at one time, but that could change.
"People are going to have to take a different look at numbers, like 500 home runs. Hitters should be evaluated by the standard of players during their time. (Former Dodgers first baseman) Gil Hodges' 350 homers means more during his era than players who have 450, 500 home runs now. (Former Cubs third baseman) Ron Santo is easily one of the top 10, maybe even among the top six, third baseman of the 20th century.
"But you look at the home run numbers players are producing now, and it puts a lot of guys on the edge."
CLOUDING THE POWER numbers is the issue of steroid and illegal performance-enhancing drugs. McGwire even receive 25% of the vote in his first year of eligibility. Rafael Palmeiro, who has 569 home runs and 3,020 hits, is eligible in four years, but he tested positive for steroid use in his final season.
"My feeling on this is that nobody should be judgmental unless we have more information than we do now," Reich says. "I think there should be a general policy on this and not have individuals make their own policy. I heard people say, 'I'm not going to vote on McGwire regardless or Bonds regardless,' and that's not right.
"I think it's inconceivable to think that only hitters were using steroids and pitchers weren't."
Yet Palmeiro may be forever excluded from Cooperstown because he is the only eligible Hall of Fame caliber player in the next five ballots who has tested positive.
"Palmeiro is the prime example of why I can no longer assume 3,000 hits or 500 home runs equals automatic induction," says Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "He tested positive, and while I'm not saying that will prevent me from ever voting for him, it will weigh heavily on my decision.
"Frank Thomas is an example, however, of where the 500-home run mark is still a meaningful number to me. When he reached that number, he entrenched himself as a Hall of Famer in my mind. I have little reason to suspect he hasn't been clean, though I realize we can never be sure with anybody anymore. Put it this way. If those two appeared on the ballot today, I would vote yes for Thomas and no for Palmeiro."
Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who will be inducted Sunday into the writers' wing of the Hall of Fame, says he will not be swayed by steroid allegations, or perhaps even positive tests.
"I voted for McGwire," he says. "I'm sure I would vote for Bonds and probably for Sosa, pending further information. Palmeiro actually having tested positive, I don't know."
There could be a lull until Palmeiro's class is eligible in 2011. Some players eligible for consideration:
•2008: Brady Anderson, Andy Benes, Delino DeShields, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Mike Morgan, Robb Nen, Tim Raines, Greg Swindell, Randy Velarde, Mark Wohlers.
•2009: Steve Avery, Jay Bell, John Burkett, David Cone, Mike Bordick, Ron Gant, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Denny Neagle, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, Mike Williams.
•2010: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Rod Beck, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile
•2011: Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Mike Hampton, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina, Larry Walker.
THE HALL OF FAME will let the writers decide how they want to treat the steroid era. Who goes in, who stays out, will be up to the veteran members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.
"Over the course of time, the BBWAA has maintained the intensely high standards set for election to the Hall of Fame," says Jeff Idelson, vice president of the Hall of Fame. "The criteria is subjective, which gives veteran writers latitude … Election is more exclusive than the U.S. Senate."
And, in the upcoming years, could provide more controversy than any Senate race.